FIGS Probability Calculator
What is it?
The FIGS Probability Calculator delivers a quantitatively-derived probability of achieving your desired return on
a stock, over a certain period of time.
In inefficient markets stock prices and earnings growth can sometimes move in different directions. The calculator
offers you a level of objectivity and rational judgment so that you can ignore the noise when investing and focus
on the relevant data.
How is it calculated?
To qualify for use in the calculator, a stock must have been listed for a minimum of 3 years. This is done to ensure
sufficient data sets.
After that we take the stock’s current growth in profits and its valuation using market data from Reuters and Factset.
Then we assess them by comparing these to similar profit growth and valuation points in history.
An algorithm then evaluates these market parameters in order to deliver a probability of you achieving your desired
returns over a certain time period.
Where is it?
The probability calculator can be found on every page on the left-hand side so that you can easily access it.
Quickly discover the probability of your desired returns on your favoured stocks, wherever you are on the FIGS
How to use it?
Select your desired return over a set time period from the drop-down menus.
Click and find out the probability so you can decide, based on the likelihood of returns, where you feel comfortable
Use it in combination with our other Analyse tools and the Learn section to decide where to invest!
Use the calculator according to your expectations of returns and your investment timeline. For example, if you’re
a short-term investor and you are seeking out a return of 15% for a stock over 3 months then this will most likely
result in a lower probability of achieving your desired return.
In comparison, if you’re a long-term investor and you are seeking out a return of 10% for a stock over 12 months
then this will most likely result in a higher probability of achieving your desired return.
Then you can decide to buy depending on your probability of short-term or long-term returns.
How do you know what a high or low probability is though? Here is what the numbers means in terms of achieving
your desired returns. If the probability is:
1. 85-100% it is LIKELY
2. 50-85% it is NEUTRAL
3. <50% it is UNLIKELY